Round-Up: The 2016 Presidential Election, Post First Debate

  • The first 2016 debate between Trump & Clinton has come and gone. Video below if you missed it:
  • Good conversation post-debate on the The Keepin’ It 1600 podcast of Bill Simmons The Ringer media venture, which is hosted by Jon Favreau, Tommy Vietor, and Jon Lovett—prominent former aides to President Obama. They are joined by Jessica Yellin (former Chief White House correspondent for CNN) and Tim Miller (former communication head for the Jeb Bush campaign and then lead for anti-Trump opposition group, Our Principles).

  • Via Scott Adams’s Twitter feed (creator of the Dilbert Comic and indispensible thinker on the Trump phenomon), S.E. Cupp and Keith Koffler offer “not-so-fast” accounts suggesting Trump may has done better than many expect. Bill Kristol offers similar remarks, albeit more positive on Clinton. Arthur Brooks questions whether debates matter at all.
  • Notwithstanding where the polls stand, there has been many issues with polling recently: catch-up here, here, and here (read the last link if you read just one). Relatedly, The Upshot gave four seperate pollsters the same poll data—four different takes. Could the “shy-Tory“phenomenon rear its head in U.S. Elections?
  • One of the wisest comments on the election going forward comes from the Politico panel of “Battleground-State Insiders.”
    • “But a Florida Democrat countered that Clinton’s performance was unlikely to change fundamentally the trajectory of the race. ‘It is becoming a base turnout election, and she did a great job tonight of making the stakes in this election very clear,’ the Democrat said.”

  • Along these lines, it’s interesting to catch-up on the roll of data in voter-targeting and turn-out if you haven’t been following. Great AEI event serves as a primmer, video embedded below. It’s impossible to understand modern politics without grasping the data arms race.



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